Carrot and stick

[ausgeo@xxxxxxx]

Monday  June 2  1997

Carrot and stick 

The SLORC administration in Burma has shown quite clearly over the past couple 
of weeks what it thinks of external pressure in favour of democracy and its 
leader,Daw Aung San Suu Kyi. United States sanctions have not led to any 
change in policy - if anything, the reverse. Now members of the Association of 
Southeast Asian Nations (Asean) have agreed to admit Burma. This was always a 
likely course, but Asean's decision means that another potential source of 
pressure will no longer have an effect on the situation in that country. After 
the doubtful impact of the stick of sanctions, the carrot of entry into Asean 
has been discarded.

It is probable Asean's decision was encouraged by a desire not to be seen to 
be going along with Western pressure. Some member countries have made clear 
their irritation at the US telling Asia how to behave. To that extent, the 
Asean decision may be seen as a mirror image of the sanctions move. Such a 
dynamic can only have been encouraged by an awareness that some countries 
which would be vital to effective sanctions, such as France, were not going to 
fall in line with Washington and by reports that US companies which want to go 
on dealing with Burma have made their dispositions ahead of President 
Clinton's announcement.

It is now for the Asean governments to show that their brand of constructive 
engagement can bring improvement in Burma. They have given the SLORC a 
legitimacy which it would have been more effective to have withheld until such 
improvements were evident. The Asean action will inevitably discourage those 
within Burma fighting for their rights. Nor will they be helped by a conflict 
between Asean and Washington which nominally centres on Burma, but, in effect, 
reflects a wider dispute about intervention in defence of human rights. As 
always in such cases, it is all too easy for the interests of those who should 
be given help to be relegated to second place behind political concerns.


South China Morning Post Publishers Ltd.